Author: Amy Buxton

The US foodservice industry is facing a period of major transformation and it is set to impact every sector player. Key to this upheaval is the rise of consumers becoming more cognizant of the environmental and ethical impacts of their diets. As such, they are demanding more plant-based and sustainable options, which need to be fulfilled by foodservice companies.

Demonstrably, the foodservice industry is already increasingly incorporating meat and dairy-free options into their menus. However, the sector needs to be prepared for ongoing dietary shifts and growing trends.

A new white paper from the Good Food Institute (GFI) offers a comprehensive overview of the future of foodservice and identifies at least five key trends that are set to irreversibly alter the industry:

Plant-based eating will continue to rise

Plant-based foods are becoming increasingly popular, as consumers seek out healthier and more sustainable options. According to GFI, the plant-based food market is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030. This ties in with an increasing number of consumers adopting flexitarian, vegan, and plant-based diets.

Overall, global consumers are expected to significantly reduce their meat and dairy intake. This is being encouraged by climate experts, who have previously stated that a shift away from animal agriculture is one of, if not the most significant steps that we can take to reduce climate damage.

Animal agriculture is thought to contribute 18% of all greenhouse gas emissions, more than all forms of transportation combined. Breaking this down further, it has been found that meat and dairy account for 57% of all food production emissions. Conversely, plant-based food production is responsible for 29% of all food-related emissions.

Consumers are increasingly aware of how their food choices directly impact the environment, their own health and the wellbeing of animals. This is why all three have been cited as major motivations for people choosing to ditch meat and dairy or at least reduce their intake significantly.

GFI specifically reports that 2022 was a high-performance year and marked a noticeable shift back to pre-pandemic popularity levels for plant-based meats. “U.S. broadline distributor sales of plant-based proteins reached $304 million in 2022, growing 8% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Meanwhile, unit sales declined very slightly by 1% over the same period, in line with animal-based meat sales declines,” the report reads.

Growth of fast casual dining will be tangible

Fast casual restaurants offer a more convenient and affordable alternative to traditional sit-down restaurants. They are a valid choice when consumers are pressed for time and they have been shown to be more likely to offer plant-based options than their conventional counterparts.

This presents chains–including QSR giants–with an opportunity to tap into the burgeoning popularity of their dining genre while also catering to a growing market. It is likely that fast casual dining spots will begin to roll out more choices for meat-free eaters and that those who spotlight such consumers will benefit from an increased customer base.

This has already been witnessed as McDonald’s and Burger King vyed to tempt plant-based consumers with their meat-free menu additions in recent years. Where McDonald’s chose to debut the McPlant, and later the Double McPlant, Burger King went further and developed a range of plant-based options including ‘chicken’ sandwiches, nuggets, and signature burgers. As a result, Burger King is deemed the more popular chain and its food, better received.

It’s not just burgers that need to be prioritized though, as GFI confirmed,

“In 2022, products including plant-based chicken, plant-based pork, and plant-based seafood emerged as small but mighty segments, demonstrating that operators are leaning into new product offerings beyond the traditional plant-based burger. Analog products made up 53% of pound sales in plant-based proteins in 2022, up from 39% in 2019,” findings revealed.

Delivery and takeout services will need to step up

As consumers become more time-pressed, home-delivery and takeaway food services are continuing to see a boom in popularity. This is therefore creating new opportunities for plant-based foodservice businesses.

One thing to be aware of, however, is the rising cost of plan-based ingredients. The average price per pound of plant-based proteins grew 9% from 2019 to 2022. While this appears concerning, it is vital to note that animal meat prices increased by 26%. As foodservice companies attempt to protect their margins, these increases will necessarily be passed onto consumers, potentially supporting a further shift away from animal protein.

Delivery and takeout services stand to benefit from loyal consumer bases by offering more plant-based choices, guarantees of no cross-contamination in kitchens that are not exclusively meat-free, and showcasing the better value of animal-free menu items. Carbon neutral delivery options will also likely sway purchasers.

The demand for transparency

Consumers are increasingly demanding transparency about the food they eat. This is driving demand for plant-based foods that are made with high-quality ingredients and with traceable footprints.

This has seen some food manufacturers taking steps to print their carbon footprints on their product packaging while foodservice providers have been experimenting with displaying environmental impact information on menus. There’s no denying that this will incur additional costs, at least in the short-term, but conscious consumers are a valuable customer base.

GFI claims that plant-based meat fans make around 30 more trips to foodservice locations every year than their animal protein counterparts. The result is an average extra spend of $400 annually, demonstrating the commercial viability of catering to this specific consumer genre.

As more individuals experiment with plant-based foods and manufacturers produce increasingly indistinguishable meat analogs, foodservice businesses are on the precipice of being able to capitalize on high-value shoppers, while also catering to their dietary and ethical preferences.

The focus on sustainability

The environmental impact of food choices is becoming a driving factor for consumers when choosing between meat and plant-based protein packed foods. GFI estimates that around 10% of all US consumers bought plant-based meat products at a foodservice location in 2022.  However, most only did so just once.

If foodservice companies can marry consumer curiosity with sustainability concerns, through informed marketing and clear labeling, the plant-based meat category would be well positioned to gain a greater foothold within the foodservice sector. It would not be a stretch to assume that consumers would return more than once, creating greater consumer loyalty to brands and outlets.

These five trends are–according to GFI–shaping the future of foodservice. The main takeaway has to be that as the industry continues to evolve, plant-based foods are likely to play an increasingly critical role.

In addition to these main observations the white paper also discusses other factors that are impacting the future of foodservice. These include the rise of food allergies and intolerances, the increasing popularity of ethnic cuisine, and the growing demand for personalized dining experiences. All of these can also be tied to an intrinsic need for greater plant-based provisions across the global–not just US–foodservice sector.

If you are interested in learning more about the future of foodservice, you can find the original white paper here: https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/foodservice-whitepaper.pdf.

Research shows that plant-based popularity will continue to rise through 2030 and beyond. To stay ahead of the curve, companies need to consider how they can up their game and the benefits of embracing, not resisting, the call for less meat and dairy.

Continued demand for plant-based foods

It’s no secret that consumers have been increasingly adopting flexitarian and vegan dietary habits. In the majority of cases, these are attributed to a growing environmental awareness or a vested interest in personal health. However, the scale of the plant-based sector’s growth appears to be somewhat underplayed.

Data from Mintel Global New Products Database reveals that growth has not only been consistent but also vast. The research found that, in line with a shift in consumer demand, new meat-free products launched with a clear plant-based message increased by 302% between 2018 and 2022. Moreover, this expansion is predicted to push through to 2030 to make the industry a multi-billion dollar sector.

Alongside environmental and wellbeing motivations, consumers also appear to be swayed by the increasing quality of meat and dairy analogues. In recent years, plant-based meat companies in particular have focussed their efforts on creating the most realistic animal protein mimics possible. Such endeavors have resulted in hyper-realistic whole-cut products launching in mainstream grocery stores around the world, thereby granting consumers easy and affordable access to cutting edge developments. This is a far cry from the days of soy-based meat-like products that bore little resemblance to their animal-based counterparts.

Demand for sustainable food options is demonstrably not in decline. This places the onus of accessibility firmly on foodservice operations, across an array of supply niches. These will include QSR outlets, catering companies that supply businesses, the education sector, and health services, and more.

How foodservice companies can step up to the plate

The foodservice sector needs to find a way to satisfy a range of consumers. It isn’t practical to expect sector leaders to ditch meat and dairy altogether, but likewise, they can’t afford to ignore the call for more options that don’t feature them. As such, there are small but meaningful steps that can be taken.

Offer a variety of plant-based options

Developing and serving more plant-based options will allow consumers to recognize that companies are aware and willing to embrace a shift in dietary demands. While it would be a challenging move to immediately provide equal numbers of meat and meat-free options, slowly tipping the balance is achievable.

Global catering giant Sodexo is doing exactly this. Currently, its plant-based menu options make up 36% of its educational supply chain. By 2025, there will be an even 50-50 split between meat and vegan meals.

In the QSR sector, Burger King appears to be leading by example. While competitor McDonald’s stalls with a limited number of plant-based menu items, Burger King has gone so far as to launch fully vegan restaurants and a much larger meat-free menu. Like Sodexo, the fast-food chain aims to be 50% plant-based, but by 2030.

Up the visibility and accessibility of meat-free dishes

Foodservice companies not only need to offer plant-based options, they actively need to promote them. By reinforcing that they are not a specialist alternative but a readily available alternative to conventional menu items, the novelty factor can be negated.

A key step will be labeling foods as vegan or plant-based on menus and highlighting the environmental benefits of them. This has been shown to increase the uptick of such options, even with traditionally meat-eating diners. In addition, meat-free dishes will also need to be included in promotions–such as meal deals– and special events. Tapping into consumers’ desires to be sustainable but not fiscally penalized for being as such is key.

Partner with popular and prolific plant-based food brands

Piggybacking on the success and popularity of an existing plant-based brand is a commercially astute way to garner new customers and meet the growing demand for meat-free foods.

In recent years, there have been a number of key collaborations that have allowed companies to put their best plant-based foot forward. Though McDonald’s has been slower to develop meat-free options, it chose to work with one of the most popular meat mimic companies, Beyond Meat. Likewise, Burger King works with the Vegetarian Butcher to create its meat analogues, which have been deemed indistinguishable from their meat items.

By identifying which brands have garnered their own loyal followings, foodservice outfits can benefit from a readymade consumer base and cross-promotion activities.

Benefits of jumping on the plant-based shift

The upsides of embracing the demand for plant-based foods arguably outweigh any cost needed to do so.

Alongside attracting legions of new customers, businesses can also benefit from positioning themselves as sustainability champion. This issue will only become more important as the climate catastrophe continues to evolve. Additionally, consumers will be impressed and feel ‘seen’ by companies willing to adapt their menus. But it’s not just customer perceptions that stand to improve.

By incorporating more plant-based foods–and subsequently reducing meat and dairy options–foodservice companies can positively alter their operational impact. As pressure grows for the companies to start aligning with net zero ambitions, those that take the leap and actively slash their carbon emissions by reducing the amount of meat and dairy in their supply chain will get a head start.

It would be churlish to ignore the fact that gearing up for a plant-based shift will likely be a costly endeavor for foodservice companies. From training staff to cook with new ingredients to marketing fresh options, there will be significant outlay necessary but the potential benefits are clear to see: more customers and better environmental credentials.

The demand for plant-based foods is growing and as menu items become more sophisticated and satisfying, this will likely only increase. Those companies that can acknowledge and accommodate the major dietary shift that is in progress will be well-positioned for success. Conversely, those who cling to archaic menu development themes will struggle to stay in business.