Author: Amy Buxton

As the plant-based food sector settles into a groove after the 2019-2020 sector boom, the landscape of meat-free manufacturing has changed.

Once dominated by beef and chicken analogues, the plant-based industry is seemingly moving towards less conventional products, experimenting with advanced technology, and gaining more governmental support than ever before. The result will, hopefully, be a varied menu for global diners–including flexitarians and curious omnivores–that supports a shift towards a more sustainable food system.

Building on trends observed this year, 2024 and beyond look set to witness the following within the meat-free market.

Plant-based seafood will continue to boom

The fastest-growing plant-based food niche in 2022-2023 is alternative seafood. Current predictions state that the global market is expected to reach a value of $2.9 billion by 2025, representing a CAGR of 23.5% between 2020 and 2025.

Reasons for the boom in seafood analogues are varied but are thought to mainly pivot around growing ethical concerns about the impact of commercial fishing, health concerns stemming from fish consumption, and the consumer uptick in seafood-heavy regions, such as Asia.

In addition, plant-based seafood products are becoming more sophisticated than ever, allowing businesses to target a wider gamut of consumers. These include sashimi connoisseurs, who can now swap out unsustainable tuna and salmon for ultra-realistic fish-free alternatives that have been classified as sushi-grade.

Refined dairy analogues

Plant-based dairy has seen steady growth in recent years, with sales increasing by 19% between 2020-22 alone. Now, the sector could be gearing up for even bigger expansion thanks to a number of major players looking to advanced technology to create the most dairy-like products possible.

Focussed on replicating the taste, texture, and nutritional values of conventional dairy, outfits such as the US’ Perfect Day, Israel’s Imagindairy, and Mighty in the UK are using precision fermentation to progress their product lines. The process allows dairy-specific proteins and enzymes to be replicated without the use of animals. These can then be used to create more faithful reproductions of various dairy lines–including yogurt and cheese.

As the technology becomes more widely available and cost-effective, it is likely that more alternative dairy companies will invest, leading to a widespread and general improvement in the quality of plant-based products.

Increased plant-based fast-food options

The fast-food industry is expected to place a higher importance on sustainability initiatives, as consumers have made it known that such factors affect their buying habits. Alongside chains looking to switch their packaging options to less impactful alternatives, plant-based menu items are likely to increase in number and availability.

Global QSR leaders–including McDonald’s, Burger King, KFC–have already experimented with meat-free menu items, with most adding at least one to the permanent menu. However, as consumer demand for plant-based options increases, it stands to reason that more dishes will be added to a bigger selection of restaurants.

Such offerings will likely be the result of collaborations with plant-based meat manufacturers, including Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods, The Vegetarian Butcher, and more. Proprietary plant-based meats could be on the horizon as well, as they will allow brands to retain greater control over their recipes and end products. Taco Bell is already exploring this avenue in a bid to stand out from the QSR crowd.

Ingredient innovations 

Plant-based meat has evolved in recent years. Once dominated by soy-based products, the sector is now awash with more realistic options that utilize ingredients such as pea protein, wheat gluten, and jackfruit. In a bid to make ever-more juicy and satisfying bites, manufacturers continue to look for ingredients that will deliver the most realistic meat analogues, with two seemingly taking priority.

Mycelium–the complex root structure of mushrooms–is an up-and-coming star of the plant-based world. Sustainable, healthy and capable of mimicking the texture and taste of meat, manufacturers are excited about the possibilities. Moreover, consumers have already given mycelium products their nod of approval, with limited releases (where the ingredient has been declared safe for human consumption) selling out in record time.

Another focus appears to be the development of suitably umami and juicy plant-based fats to be used in alternative meat products. The Good Food Institute has already spoken out about the importance of fat development, in connection to the continued growth of the plant-based meat sector. Precision fermentation, bespoke emulsions, and fungi are all being experimented with.

Traction into new global markets

Asia, Europe, and the US have all witnessed growing consumer interest in plant-based products. However, the Middle East and Africa are expected to experience a surge in meat-free popularity.

Traditionally, both regions have been meat-centric but are now seeing the potential for explosive growth in the plant-based sector. It was reported last year that the United Arab Emirates has cottoned on to the alternative meat trend and as such, has sought to import popular products from around the world. This will likely continue and increase in the coming year as the Middle East has been shown to be necessarily influenced by global dietary trends, due to the region needing to import around 90% of its food. As plant-based eating becomes more mainstream in food-producing regions–such as the US and Europe–the availability of relevant products will increase and filter out into export trends.

Likewise, Africa is expected to more widely accept and experiment with plant-based products, as a route to food security. Driving the change in tastes are Gen Z and Millennial consumers, both of which are cited as being concerned about personal health and the climate, thereby looking to meat alternatives as a sustainable solution to both. It is likely that appetites will be satiated with both imported and domestically manufactured products, though there is ongoing litigation surrounding the labeling of plant-based items in South Africa specifically. This could impact the availability of lines and therefore, consumer awareness about them.

Government subsidies for plant-based producers

The meat and dairy industries have been subsidized by US and EU governments for decades. Current estimations state that the animal-based industries are in receipt of around 1,000 times more financial support than their plant-based counterparts. In turn, this is actively blocking what experts refer to as a crucial shift towards a more sustainable food system, if we are to avoid total climate catastrophe.

To meet net zero targets and fulfill COP pledges, governments around the world will likely need to start showing support for meat and dairy alternatives. Largely proven to produce far fewer emissions than animal-based counterparts in their production, plant-based foods are being touted as a valuable resource in the fight against climate change. As such, they need to be affordable and accessible for as many people as possible, making subsidies necessary. The political landscape also stands to support a shift.

With the US electing a new president in 2024 and the UK holding a general election in 2025, political pledges to support climate action are likely from most candidates and parties, to win support from increasingly environmentally-aware voter bases. This could facilitate greater subsidies for plant-based manufacturers.

Recent declarations from the mainstream media that the plant-based revolution is ‘over’ have resulted in doubts about the sector’s future. Underpinned with constant reminders that even major players, including Beyond Meat, have faced stock downturns, such articles have created a worldwide narrative that seems somewhat grim. In turn, this suggests a fading interest in plant-based products, but the truth is more complex.

Contrary to gloomy headlines, the plant-based industry has been on a steady upward trajectory. Sales of plant-based products–including refrigerated plant-based meats– have surged and plant-based food dollar sales exhibited consistent growth from 2018 to 2021, boasting a 54% revenue increase and a compound annual growth rate of 15.5%.

Looking at the larger picture and overall growth of the plant-based industry, not simply comparing dollar sales from the 2019-2020 boom era to now, gives a more comprehensive overview of the ongoing success of food industry disruptors. What’s more, the sector is anticipated to continue growing, to take larger market share away from conventional dairy and meat, but how has it gotten to this point?

These are the key ways that plant-based food companies have secured their permanent seats at the table.

Resilience in the face of resistance

The rise of plant-based food sales was initiated prior to the global Covid-19 pandemic and maintained its momentum as home cooks began experimenting with healthier and new products. When pandemic restrictions eased and restaurants reopened, trends showed that consumers were looking to try plant-based foods out in public and picking them from grocery store shelves.

In 2020, U.S. retail sales for plant-based foods reached $6.9 billion, and by 2021, they set a new record at $7.4 billion. Despite challenges in accurately tracking sales across multiple channels, the industry’s general interest remains robust and tangible. This points to more than just a trend; it’s indicative of a lasting dietary shift. Research supports this theory as it was revealed that over 2 million people participated in Veganuary 2022, the biggest sign-up since the event began in 2014.

The adoption of plant-based foods during the pandemic has been widely attributed to a desire to embrace healthier diets, alongside increased environmental awareness. Moreover, it was not only vegan consumers driving sales, with flexitarians and vegetarians also contributing. The message was that plant-based foods are for everybody and here to stay.

Understanding what consumers want

Plant-based food companies demonstrably possess a keen insight into the nuanced and changeable desires of consumers. Their ability to cater to both early adopters and the mainstream market paves the way for a more inclusive and vibrant food future.

Vegans and flexitarians are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of potential plant-based buyers. As such, focusing marketing campaigns and data analysis on these groups alone overlooks the broader impact of the industry. Moreover, depending on early adopters would neglect the vast mainstream audience that is increasingly embracing plant-based options in their daily lives. The key is to make plant-based food a choice for everybody, not a niche offering for the few and that is exactly what manufacturers have sought to do.

Retailers also play a pivotal role in identifying and addressing consumer wants. Grocery store shoppers can easily differentiate between premium and value-based offerings and they must be given the opportunity to analyze plant-based offerings in this way. Stocking a range of high-end and budget-friendly meat and dairy alternatives helps to educate consumers about the myriad of products available and curtails unfavorable comparisons. For example, a plant-based Beyond Meat burger is still considered an expensive purchase, especially when compared to conventional beef products. However, budget veggie burgers will offer comparable weight to dollar ratios, with no cholesterol and likely a smaller environmental impact.

To continue growing the plant-based market, consumer education and product diversity are paramount. Marketers and merchandisers have the opportunity to enlighten consumers about the unique qualities of alternative products, thereby fostering informed decisions and lasting dietary change. Meanwhile, manufacturers can begin to experiment with less conventional items in a bid to show shoppers that they don’t have to say goodbye to favorite dishes.

Retail support remains strong

While consumers are certainly creating demand for easy access to a wider selection of plant-based products, retailers themselves are seemingly committed to allocating shelf space to meat and dairy alternatives. This, despite economic challenges they are facing with high inflation and rising supplier prices. The latter remains extra pertinent for the UK, following its departure from the EU.

The sentiment among food service retailers is clear – plant-based options remain a central focus, because consumers want them. They also help retail brands to position themselves as companies that prioritize environmentally responsible practices, a niche that appeals to both boards of directors and consumer bases in an increasingly environmentally-aware world.

Where once a few plant-based products could be found scattered throughout grocery stores, increasingly retailers are seeing the value of grouping such items in a clearly marketed store segment. Whole aisles are now dedicated to meat and dairy-free items and clearly signposted for consumer ease. Such moves are a clear indicator that demand is proven and increasing.

The flourishing future of plant-based

Numerous players have entered the burgeoning plant-based arena and while established brands grow and smaller competitors may fail, overall the market will stabilize, over time. This could take the form of retailers scaling back on new brands in the short-term to promote new products from established brands, or unveil their own proprietary plant-based lines. The introduction of such in-house grocery brands stands to counter perceptions of larger brand decline.

It’s not just retailers that are paving the way for a positive future though as restaurants, particularly quick service chains, play a role too. Limited-edition plant-based offerings, such as the Beyond Meat/KFC nuggets, spark interest that can help to reshape consumption patterns. Supported by permanent meat-free menu items, such releases remind consumers that they can eat the foods they enjoy, with a plant-based twist and for a comparable price. In effect, there is no downside and no loss of convenience either.

In grocery aisles and on restaurant menus, the mainstream availability of plant-based options underscores the industry’s resilience and continued expansion. By 2024, the plant-based dairy and meat industries are projected to achieve market value growth of $7.9 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively. If growth continues along the same trajectory beyond 2024, the plant-based sector will have secured more than just a seat at the food system table – it will be driving radical change from within.

Earlier this year Plant Based World Pulse unveiled a white paper that used market analysis and expert opinions to make key projections for the plant-based sector. As the year’s final quarter approaches, it’s time to revisit some key claims and identify if the market is still on track for large-scale success by 2030.

Are major plant-based drivers still working?

The original white paper highlighted the five main drivers of the plant-based sector. Significantly, there has been traction within these key motivators already, however, widespread reporting that the plant-based bubble has burst has called into question the validity of claims that the market will maintain growth. Overall, this appears to be a baseless concern.

Consumers continue to drive demand

Increasing consumer preference for plant-based products was deemed to be a major driver of sales. This was tied to a rising number of the global population choosing to embrace flexitarian or meat-free diets. While consumer dietary shifts still appear to be favoring a reduction in animal products, for some companies, the plant-based uptake has not been enough.

It would be reticent to ignore the fact that two large meat-free brands have recently been rescued from the brink of collapse. Meatless Farm, a UK-founded manufacturer of meat alternatives, was acquired by fellow plant-based food producer VFC after falling into administration in June. Around the same time, Plant & Bean, another UK-based meat-free manufacturer also called in administrators, before being bought by Heather Mills.

Despite facing difficulties, the fate of these two large brands does not diminish rising consumer demand for plant-based foods. Both cited inflation and spiraling production costs as the reasons for their shock shutdowns.

Innovation remains a focal point

As exciting plant-based protein sources, including mycelium, begin to enjoy serious traction, so too do cell-based developments. Though not considered plant-based by virtue of its origin, cultivated meat is moving forward and being touted as an environmentally and ethically superior alternative to conventional animal protein.

In recent weeks, the U.S. has given the green light for lab-grown chicken products to be sold. The move makes the US the second country in the world to approve such foods, with Singapore being the first adopter. Domestic cell-based manufacturers–including Upside Foods–have been striving for approval from the US Department of Agriculture for years and the victory marks a significant milestone in food production.

Venture capital interest is in question

Once the darling of the venture capital investments world, the plant-based sector was recently reported to be significantly less of a draw.

The claims came from the Financial Times, which stated that consumers are less interested in meat-free products and, as a result, so too are investors. Indeed, using data from the financial database PitchBook, the damning article claimed that in the first quarter of 2023, plant-based meat products bagged $75.2m million in venture capital investment, down from $703 million for the same time period, the year before.

While these figures appear conclusive, it should be noted that investment is still reaching plant-based companies. This, alongside a drastic uptick in interest in specialist enterprises prioritizing fermentation and cell cultivation techniques.

Health benefits are being widely reported

Advocates of animal-free diets have long reported the health benefits associated with their dietary preferences, and now the mainstream media appears to be following suit.

This year has seen multiple scientific research reports extrapolated into mainstream news articles that declare a plant-based diet as a valuable weapon against serious and chronic illnesses, including cancer and diabetes.

At the end of 2022, it was reported that consumers were taking far more interest in health and well-being, likely as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. As such, a consumer trends analysis company GfK survey revealed that 44% of people sampled claim to actively seek out products and services that will allow them to live a healthier life. It appears reasonable to assume that mainstream acknowledgement of the benefits of plant-based eating is impacting grocery buying trends.

On the whole, the main drivers of the plant-based sector appear to still be pushing the market forward but it could be argued that institutional changes are fast becoming a key motivator as well.

Education and healthcare lead the way

Alongside consumer demand for, investment in, and reported health benefits of meat-free products come culturally significant campaigns and legislation. A number of significant developments and protests have placed the plant-based agenda at the forefront of the global population’s minds.

Chief amongst the pro-plant-based is–arguably–the decision by New York City’s Mayor, Eric Adamas, to make all NYC hospitals serve plant-based menu items as the default option. He did so to give patients access to “healthy food” which he described as “medicine.” The move followed a 2022 directive, also launched by Adams, to serve plant-based meals in state schools for one day a week, dubbed “Vegan Fridays.”

Educational establishments have also identified the importance of sustainable menu options. As such, college campuses across the US have seen meat-free meals increase in number, with major food provider Sodexo pledging to make 50% of its menus fully plant-based by 2025. However, it’s not just US students who are happy to ditch meat.

Over in the UK, students have been increasingly demanding that their university catering options remove all animal products, for the sake of environmental benefit. The Plant-Based Universities campaign aims to transform all higher education locations into meat-free settings. Should they succeed, it stands to reason that there will be a sharp increase in demand for meat alternatives, thereby suffering up the sector.

Are plant-based predictions still on track?

The global plant-based sector is expected to reach a value of $77.8 billion by 2025 and to continue growing through 2030, potentially to more than $100 billion. However, these predictions were made during periods of lower inflation and before the impact of the cost-of-living crisis made itself known, both of which have drastically impacted consumer spending.

Despite potential stumbling blocks it is important to remember that plant-based eating is no longer deemed niche and as such, more people are seeking to include meat-free days in their diets. Moreover, it has never been easier to substitute animal products for sustainable, healthful alternatives, especially as major brands look to create plant-based versions of their best-selling products.

Global conglomerate Unilever predicts that plant-based eating will be mainstream by the end of 2023. It identifies a number of trends that will contribute to this, including increased fast food options and climate-impact labeling on food products, alongside the development of plant-based product lines in tandem with conventional releases.

Overall, it appears that the plant-based sector is still on track for growth. Quantifiable 2023 sales figures will be key to adapting expectations for long-term compound annual growth predictions from 2024 and beyond.

Click Here To Read What’s Next For Plant-Based? Trends for 2023 and Beyond, and Other Whitepapers.